Think Clearly
Frame the right problem, separate evidence from assumptions, and find causes worth testing.
Clear thinking starts by describing reality without hiding a conclusion inside the problem statement.
Write the gap
Weak: “The database is too small.” This assumes the answer.
Better: “Checkout requests exceed the latency target during the 18:00 traffic peak; database connection wait accounts for most of the delay.”
Separate what you know
| Type | Example |
|---|---|
| Fact | The trace shows 800 ms waiting for a database connection |
| Assumption | A larger database will reduce the wait |
| Unknown | Whether the pool is exhausted by load or leaked connections |
| Constraint | Checkout must remain available during investigation |
Facts need a source. Assumptions need a test. Unknowns need a next question.
Find causes, not blame
Ask “what conditions allowed this?” before “who changed it?” Trace the system from the visible symptom toward inputs, dependencies, state, recent changes, and controls.
A cause is useful when changing it should change the outcome. Test that relationship. A timeline match or confident story is not enough.
Use AI as a challenger
Give AI the sanitized problem statement and evidence. Ask:
- Which assumptions are hidden here?
- What other explanations fit the same facts?
- What evidence would disprove each explanation?
- Which question should we answer first?
Do not ask AI to name the root cause from partial context. Its job is to widen the inquiry; evidence narrows it.
Ready to act
Move forward when the team can state the outcome, evidence, key assumptions, affected people, constraints, and the next test. Perfect certainty is not required. A clear learning step is.